Political Campaign Strategy: What’s Likely to Happen?

Embarking on a political campaign comes with its share of nerve-wracking uncertainties.

Until the vote totals are in on election day, no candidate ever knows for sure what constitutes too much or too little when it comes to campaigning.  With limited resources, it can sometimes feel like guesswork when trying to decide where to deploy your last remaining campaign dollars and shoe leather.

This is doubly true in a small-scale race where polling for voter sentiments simply isn’t feasible.  The local grapevine is often the only indication a candidate can get of whether or not the campaign is going well.

In this kind of blindfolded election environment, a good grip on likelihoods can help a candidate guess at where to devote resources and how hard to push.

What kind of message is likely to appeal to voters?  How much money are you likely to need?  What is the voter turnout likely to be, and what wards are likely to turn out?  How many votes will you likely need to win?

You’ll never hit it on the nose, but some smart research can help you sketch out a picture of what you’ll most likely have to do in order to win a race.  And when you’re clearer on what might produce victory, your campaign is inevitably more effective.

For an example, let’s consider one of the most common questions new candidates have: where should I focus my door-to-door efforts?

You might not have a crystal ball that tells you exactly what neighborhoods will help you win, but you can deduce likelihoods. Get to your local board of elections and ask for a copy of election results from past years.

What precincts had the highest turnouts?  Which candidates did those precincts cast votes for?

As you dig for answers, the likelihoods for your particular race will start to become clearer to you.  You’ll get a feel for what it’s going to take to pull of a win, and the whole prospect will become much less intimidating.

Or you could do what many political candidates do: take a shot in the dark. Don’t study past election results, because that takes too much work and time.  Just knock on a few doors, throw a spaghetti fundraiser, and toss up some yard signs.

You could still win, sure.  But it wouldn’t be likely.

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