Calculating likely election day voter turnout for your race won’t change the percentage of the vote you’ll need to win; your winning number will always be 50-percent-plus-one, regardless of how many people show up at the polls.  But having a good idea of likely voter turnout during particular election cycles can help you focus resources more effectively over the course of your campaign.

The process of deducing how may voters are likely to show up at the polls is pretty simple, even for someone like myself who is absolutely horrible at math.

As we’ve suggested before, you need to get to your local board of elections (or go online) to look at a copy of turnout numbers for the last several election cycles.  Most boards will print out the info for a small fee, or sell you a disk with the numbers on it.

The turnout numbers for your particular ward, city or district are important, of course, but be sure to also look at overall trends for particular years, as well.

Obviously, presidential and gubernatorial election years are going to see higher turnout.  Other factors, however, can bring more voters to the polls in what would otherwise be a slow year.

Controversial issues on the ballot are a great example.  When I won my first city council race, I was convinced that the data from past cycles predicted a record low turnout that year.  I was wrong: a statewide issue allowing casino gambling in Ohio spurred a much larger than normal amount of voters to turn out (yes, the issue  passed).

Having a good grasp on the likely turnout can help your political campaign on several different fronts.  First, the new candidate who has never before run for office can use the data to determine which election cycle offers the best chances at winning a race.

For instance, if you deem that a lower turnout in certain precincts might increase your likelihood of getting elected, the data should be able to show you exactly which cycle will be most friendly to your efforts.

Secondly, studying the turnout data over several years will make you intimately familiar with the precincts, wards and cities that tend to turn out the vote.

By concentrating your efforts only in neighborhoods where you know that residents are much more likely to cast a ballot, you’ll significantly increase your chances of hitting that magic number on election night.

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