Planning a Political Campaign: Your Winning Number

On the heels of our post yesterday about making your political campaign more successful by deducing likelihoods, let’s look at one of the first things a candidate should figure out: your winning number.

Your winning number is how many votes you’re going to need to win the campaign on election day.  For a head-to-head race, that number is 50-percent-plus-one of the total votes cast.  For an at-large race with more than one available seat, that number is the lowest amount of votes that will still produce a win.

Are you going to be able to calculate with a high degree of certainty what your winning number is going to be?  No, probably not.  But with some research of past turnout in your district, you should be able to get a pretty good idea of how many votes it will take to win.

To calculate your winning number, visit your local board of elections and get a copy of election results for your district over several cycles.  Don’t simply rely on figures from the last time your targeted seat was up for grabs; depending on what other high-profile races were on the ballot, turnout numbers can vary greatly from year to year.

Take a look at how many votes were cast in your target race in the past.  Did the turnout vary much from year to year?  What factors were likely to have increased or decreased turnout in a given cycle?

Finally, focus on the election year that most resembled the terrain you’ll be facing: if you’re running during a gubernatorial or mayoral election year, look at those numbers.  If during a presidential election year, study numbers from the last similar cycle.

From this data, you’ll get a pretty good idea of how many voters are likely to turn out at the polls, and how many votes it will probably take to win your seat.

Making an educated guess about what your winning number will be isn’t just an academic exercise.  It will help you get a clearer picture of the political landscape, better understand the likely turnout, and serve as a concrete goal that will lend direction to your campaign.

So, what’s your campaign’s winning number?  Knowing what it takes to win is a big part of being victorious on election day.

Related Political Campaign & Local Election Strategies:

1. Planning a Political Campaign: Voter Turnout
2. Winning Early Absentee Voters in Your Political Campaign
3. Political Campaign Strategy for Low-Turnout Local Elections
4. Local Election Cycles: Best Years to Win a Political Campaign
5. Local Election Predictions: Odds of Winning Your Campaign